Assessment of the impact of climate change on urban flooding: A case study of Beijing, China

Abstract Global climate change and rapid urbanization increase the risk of urban flooding, especially in China. Climate ‘heat island effect’ have increased frequency extreme precipitation. Affected by backwardness drainage facilities lack capacity, many cities experienced large-scale waterlogging low-lying areas, ocean-like phenomena appear cities. The public infrastructure was damaged caused a lot economic losses. Therefore, it is important to investigate adaptability systems future changing environment. Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Storm Water Management (SWMM) were used quantify impact on Beijing's under different rainstorm scenarios for 40 years. quantile delta mapping method daily precipitation based (DFQDM) proposed correct model which proved be feasible. After annual index are corrected, percent bias (PBIAS) significantly reduced. PBIAS corrected all controlled within 6%. accuracy CanESM5 best. total flood volume (TFV) node increases with aggravation change. TFV SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 45.43 20.8% 100-year return period, respectively, more than 94% conduits reached maximum capacity periods. low development (LID) installed, improvement effect outflow smaller period significant, decreasing about 50%. LID can effectively reduce overflow system. results this study provide suggestions reconstruction system management Beijing future.